Old Soviet spacecraft Kosmos 482 is falling: Details here!
A 53-year-old Soviet spacecraft will fall back to Earth possibly as early as the evening of May 9. EarthSky spoke with Vishnu Reddy of the University of Arizona – an expert in impact hazard assessment – on Wednesday, May 7. Watch in the player above or on YouTube.
Soviet spacecraft Kosmos 482 to fall soon
A heat-resistant Soviet spacecraft Kosmos 482 – originally bound for Venus – is due to return to Earth as early as the evening of May 9. After a successful launch on March 31, 1972, to a temporary orbit around Earth, a problem with a timer cut an engine burn prematurely. So the spacecraft was unable to leave our planet’s orbit. It’s been circling Earth for 53 years and now it’s finally time to come home.
As we are now close to the reentry time, the dates are between Friday and Saturday, May 9 and 10, depending on where you live. The U.S. military tracking network forecast a reentry on May 10 around 5 UTC, plus or minus 11 hours. Meanwhile, the European Space Agency says it will occur at 8 UTC on May 10, plus or minus 9.5 hours. That would be 3 a.m. CDT.
Where will it reenter?
It’s extremely difficult to determine where the uncontrolled reentry of Kosmos 482 will occur. But the current orbit indicates it should be anywhere between latitude 52 degrees north and 52 degrees south. About 90% Earth’s population lives in that zone.
Of course, our planet is mostly ocean-covered. And that means the probability that the spacecraft will reenter over water is high.
2/x
With the current uncertainty window, the spacecraft can come down anywhere along the blue line in the map:— Marco Langbroek (@marcolangbroek.bsky.social) May 8, 2025 at 1:51 AM
Is there risk?
Yes, there is a risk with the spacecraft reentry. Although the odds that it occurs over land or a populated area are small, the inconvenient detail with Kosmos 482 is that it was a probe similar to the Venera mission landers. That is, they were built to withstand acceleration, high pressures and extreme heat in the incredibly dense atmosphere of Venus. So most of the lander, even if not intact, might still reach our planet’s surface.
The craft is about 3.2 feet (1 meter) across. But it’s heavy; it weighs approximately 1,100 pounds (495 kilograms). And, according to satellite expert Marco Langbroek, impact speed might be around 150 miles (242 km) per hour after atmospheric drag deceleration.
Will it be visible to the eye before reentering?
As it continues to orbit Earth, you might be able to see Kosmos 482 around dusk and dawn from some areas, just as any moving dim satellite is visible from dark skies. It might become slightly brighter as we get close to the reentry date. Go to Heavens-Above.com, and after entering your location, select the new link that says: Cosmos 482 landing module. If there is a visible pass, select it to see where in the sky it will appear, and when.
In the rare case that reentry occurs over your area, the object should look similar to a very bright and slow meteor, probably showing some fragmentation.
As we get closer to the reentry of this unusual orbiting object, we will keep you updated.
The sun is a drag
One factor in the craft’s reentry date is the sun’s activity. Why? Because when our sun is active, our planet’s upper atmosphere gets hotter and expands. That, in turn, causes more atmospheric drag on low-orbiting objects, slowing the orbital speed and thus causing the reentry to occur sooner. Follow daily sun activity here.
Does Kosmos 482 have a parachute?
Advanced astrophotographer Ralf Vandebergh uses a camera attached to a telescope to track orbiting satellites. And some of his images show what he thinks might be the exposed parachute of the Kosmos 482 lander. Is it possible Kosmos 482 has a parachute still attached? Even if it does, some experts highly doubt the parachute’s ability to work – and slow the craft down as it reenters – after so many years. Still, the idea is intriguing.
Meanwhile, other observers are capturing the old Soviet spacecraft as it’s gradually losing height.
New imagery of 1972 launched intended #Venera probe to visit #Venus but that is stuck in Earth orbit for 53 years, likely confirms that some structure is connected to the capsule. Not impossible that it’s the parachute that already came out the capsule a long time ago, but this is still speculation!
— Ralf Vandebergh (@ralfvandebergh.bsky.social) May 1, 2025 at 8:38 AM
Bottom line: An old Soviet spacecraft – Kosmos 482 – that has been orbiting Earth for 53 years will reenter our atmosphere as early as May 9, 2025.
Read more: Space vehicle reentries shed exotic metal particles to Earth’s atmosphere
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