Old Soviet spacecraft to fall to Earth around May 11
Watch a livestream on the Soviet spacecraft falling back to Earth around May 11. The livestream will begin at 12:15 p.m. CT (17:15 UTC) on Wednesday, May 7. Join EarthSky’s Dave Adalian and planetary scientist Vishnu Reddy of the University of Arizona for a chat, and bring your questions!
Soviet spacecraft to fall to Earth soon
An unusual object is about to reenter Earth’s atmosphere. The heat-resistant Soviet spacecraft Kosmos 482 launched on March 31, 1972, bound for Venus. After a successful launch to a temporary orbit around Earth, a problem with a timer cut an engine burn prematurely. So the spacecraft was unable to leave our planet’s orbit. It’s been circling Earth for 53 years and will reenter the atmosphere around May 8 to 14, 2025, centered around May 11, according to satellite expert Marco Langbroek.
As we get closer to the date and continue to monitor its orbital height, we’ll be able to estimate a more precise reentry date.
The reentry date might be sooner or later, depending on the sun’s activity. Why? Because when the sun gets more active, our planet’s upper atmosphere gets hotter and expands. That, in turn, causes more atmospheric drag on low-orbiting objects, slowing the orbital speed and thus causing the reentry to occur sooner.
Advanced astrophotographer Ralf Vandebergh uses a camera attached to a telescope to track orbiting satellites, and some of his images show what he thinks might be the exposed parachute of the Cosmos 482 lander, although some experts highly doubt the parachute may work after so many years.
Meanwhile, other observers are capturing the old Soviet spacecraft as it is gradually losing height.
Where will it reenter?
It’s extremely difficult to determine over which area the uncontrolled reentry will occur. But the current orbit indicates it will be anywhere between latitude 52 degrees north and 52 degrees south. However, our planet is mostly ocean-covered. And that means the probability that the reentry will be over water is high.
Is there any risk?
There is a small risk with the spacecraft reentry. Although the odds that it occurs over land or a populated area are small, the inconvenient detail with Kosmos 482 is that it was a probe similar to the Venera mission landers. That is, they were built to withstand acceleration and the high pressures and extreme heat of Venus. So most of the lander, even if not intact, may still reach our planet’s surface.
The 1,091-pound (495-kg) landing module is about 3.2 feet (1 meter) across. And, according to satellite expert Marco Langbroek, impact speed might be around 150 miles (242 km) per hour after atmospheric drag deceleration.
Will it be visible to the eye before reentering?
As it continues to orbit Earth, you might be able to see Kosmos 482 around dusk and dawn from some areas, just as any moving dim satellite is visible from dark skies. It may become slightly brighter as we get close to the reentry date. You can enter your observing location on Heavens-Above.com and select “Satellite Database,” then select “1972” in year of launch, press Update, select the last object in the list (Cosmos 482 Debris / 1972-023E), then select “Passes.” If there is a visible pass, select it to see where in the sky it will appear, and when.
Will the Soviet spacecraft be visible during reentry?
In the rare case that reentry occurs over your area, the object should look similar to a very bright and slow meteor, probably showing some fragmentation.
As we get closer to the reentry of this unusual orbiting object, we will keep you updated.
Bottom line: An old Soviet spacecraft that has been circling Earth for 53 years is set to finally reenter our atmosphere around May 11, 2025.
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